Tournament Info and Venue: This week’s tournament keeps the guys in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The Byron Nelson Championship is short on major championship winners but still has plenty of name golfers to fill out a field that should provide plenty of entertainment at a tournament named after one of golf’s all time greats. This week’s course is the second consecutive par 70 layout, the TPC Four Seasons, and is a course that puts a premium on both driving distance and accuracy. There is plenty of length in the par 4s with most at or above 430 yards and two over 500 yards, including the ridiculous 528 yard 3rd that has water all along the right hand side. (I think I might go Kevin Na on #3 if I played there and get a 16 on it.) The relative length and tightness at Four Seasons puts total driving as a critical stat to keep in mind heading into this week. Here is a look at my top picks and bets this week at the HP Byron Nelson Championship:
Patrick’s Top 5 Picks To Win:
- Brian Gay (28/1) – Ranks #1 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and scrambling and #3 in sand save percentage. He is also traditionally one of the best putters on the Tour… all of these things are going to be essential this week. His final round 63 last year was the best in the field by 3 full strokes and shot him all the way up to 2nd place at this event.
- K.J. Choi (16/1) – The last time we saw him he was accepting the trophy at the Players Championship but that was on the heels of 3 other top ten finishes. He’s red hot and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue at the TPC Four Seasons this week.
- Dustin Johnson (16/1) – At first glance, his recent play in 2011 doesn’t earn him a spot among the elite in this field… that is until you look at his history at the Byron Nelson and realize he has finished in 7th and 4th place at the event the past two years. His comfort level at the course should get him back into the groove he was in earlier this year.
- Jason Day (16/1) – 2010 was his first appearance at the Byron Nelson and the results were impressive… he won by two strokes. He comes into this week as the defending champion and with three top ten finishes in his past four starts.
- Charlie Wi (40/1) – I was down to Wi and Sean O’Hair (who has really been good his last two starts and finished 12th at the Nelson last year) for this final spot in the top 5 but Wi gets the nod because he’s a superior putter ranking 4th on Tour in total putting.
Best Value Bets
To Win:
- Arjun Atwal (125/1) – Finished 7th at the Byron Nelson in 2010 and is coming off his best showing in 2011 (12th at Colonial) since the very first tournament of the year in January.
- Angel Cabrera (66/1) – There is no evidence of any kind to support this one… just a hunch. He missed the cut last week at Colonial but shot a nice 68 on Friday. He also missed the cut prior to both of his major wins, the 2006 U.S. Opne and 2009 Masters.
To Finish in the Top Ten: Blake Adams (8/1) – Tied for 2nd at the Byron Nelson in 2010 and is coming off his best finish of the year last week at Colonial, a tie for 16th.
